By Brooks Sunrise
“Sweet are the uses of adversity, which, like the toad, ugly and venomous, wears yet a precious jewel in its head.”
The line from William Shakespeare’s “As You Like It” is being quoted across Africa 2026, as governments, businesses and households navigate inflation, debt, climate shocks and political transitions.
For many in the continent, the “toad” is familiar. The “jewel” is what they are trying to extract.
Africa entered 2026 facing familiar headwinds.
According to African Development Bank, 22 countries remain at high risk of debt distress. The IMF forecasts average inflation at 11.2% across sub-Saharan Africa, driven by food and fuel costs. The UN says 24 million people in the Sahel require humanitarian assistance due to drought and conflict.
In Nigeria, fuel subsidy removal in 2023 continues to push transport costs higher. In Kenya, tax protests in 2024 reshaped fiscal policy. In Sudan and DRC, conflict has displaced millions.
“Adversity here is not abstract,” said Dr Amina Bello, a development economist at the University of Lagos. “It is power cuts, it is hospital bills, it is youth unemployment at 35%.”
But analysts and business leaders point to outcomes emerging from the pressure.
Kenya’s M-Pesa, launched after limited bank access in rural areas, now processes over $300 billion annually. Nigeria’s fintech sector raised more than $800 million in 2024-2025, much of it targeting payments and credit for the unbanked.
“We built because the system was not there,” said Iyin Aboyeji, co-founder of Flutterwave. “Necessity is the parent.”
Adversity has fueled culture. Nigeria’s music industry, led by Afrobeats, generated an estimated $2 billion in 2025, per PwC. South African Amapiano and Ghanaian drill have similar global reach. Nollywood remains the world’s second-largest film industry by output.
“The toad was the lack of studios, funding, distribution,” said filmmaker Kunle Afolayan in Lagos. “The jewel is that we learned to do it ourselves and sell it to the world.”
In the absence of strong state services, community networks have expanded. Savings groups support an estimated 20 million households, according to FSD Africa.
During recent floods in East Africa, local mutual aid groups were first responders in Nairobi and Kampala, before international agencies arrived.
*Rwanda*: After the 1994 genocide, Rwanda prioritized governance and technology. It now ranks among Africa’s top 3 for ease of doing business, World Bank data shows. Women hold 61% of parliamentary seats, the highest globally.
*South Africa*: Post-apartheid, the country institutionalized the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. While inequality persists, its constitution and judiciary are cited as models.
*Ethiopia*: Facing foreign exchange shortages, the government liberalized telecoms and launched the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, aimed at energy exports by 2027.
*Nigeria*: Africa most populous nation has turned constraints into export industries. Despite power deficit and naira depreciation, Lagos has become a continental hub with 5 unicorns in 5 years. The creative sector, led by Afrobeats and Nollywood, employed an estimated 4.5 million people in 2025, according to Nigeria Bureau of Statistics. Following fuel subsidy removal, the government launched a $500 million presidential CNG initiative to cut transport costs, while states are expanding social investment programmes.
‘The jewel is that we stopped we stopped waiting’ said Theophilus Ossai, 30, a software developer in Warri. ‘We built our own light, our own internet, our own payment rails’.
However, economists caution against treating hardship as policy.
“Resilience is not a development strategy,” said Prof. Carlos Lopes, former head of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. “The jewel does not justify the venom. The goal must be to remove the toad.”
The AfDB estimates Africa needs $1.3 trillion by 2030 to meet infrastructure and climate goals. Without investment, adaptation will remain costly.
With a median age of 19, Africa’s population is the youngest globally. The African Continental Free Trade Area, now covering 54 countries, aims to boost intra-African trade by 52% by 2030.
For many young Africans, Shakespeare’s line resonates less as poetry and more as operating instruction.
“The toad is real,” said Zainab Musa, 26, a software developer in Port Harcourt. “But we are looking for the jewel. That’s the job.”