Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk has warned that several countries risk severe population decline if current fertility rates persist, sharing a chart that projects steep drops over the next 100 years.
Musk, who has repeatedly called for higher birth rates, shared a post on X that described fertility rates as “so abstract that people struggle to understand the scale of the catastrophe.”
“I don’t think people really understand what that means,” Musk wrote while sharing the chart.
The chart listed 14 countries and territories projected to see their populations shrink by more than 90% in 100 years based on current fertility rates.
According to the data shared:
– Taiwan: 0.70 fertility rate, 97.4% smaller in 100 years
– South Korea: 0.80, 96% smaller
– Andorra: 0.83, 95.5% smaller
– Singapore: 0.87, 94.7% smaller
– San Marino: 0.96, 92.6% smaller
– Malta: 0.98, 92.1% smaller
– Ukraine: 0.99, 91.8% smaller
– Chile: 0.99, 91.8% smaller
– Colombia: 1.00, 91.6% smaller
– China: 1.01, 91.3% smaller
– Belarus: 1.03, 90.7% smaller
– Thailand: 1.03, 90.7% smaller
– Lithuania: 1.04, 90.4% smaller
– Argentina: 1.04, 90.4% smaller
Taiwan’s rate was also cited as 1.14 in a separate calculation in the original post, which would imply an 86.9% decline over three generations.
Demographers generally consider a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman necessary to maintain a stable population, though the replacement level varies by country.
Musk, who says he has 14 children, has long argued that low birth rates pose a greater long-term risk than overpopulation, and has been particularly vocal about declines in countries including Japan, South Korea and China.
Japan, often cited by Musk in the past, was outside the 14 most at-risk populations in the chart he shared.