• For now, analysts remain cautious about timelines given the state of the national grid.
Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and head of Dangote Group, has announced plans to generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity in Nigeria. The move targets the country’s long-running power crisis that continues to stall industrial growth and push businesses toward expensive diesel generators.
Dangote revealed the plan in a discussion with International Finance Corporation Managing Director Makhtar Diop. He said the group would expand into power after building Nigeria’s largest refinery and establishing a major presence in fertiliser production.
“We are now going into power… 20,000 megawatts,” Dangote said. He added that Africa’s biggest needs remain energy, fertilisers, and industrial inputs.
The timing follows a string of missed targets by the Federal Government. Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu has failed to raise national output to 6,000MW since taking office in August 2023. Actual supply often hovers around 3,331MW — barely enough for one major city in a country of over 200 million people.
The economic cost is heavy. The World Bank estimates erratic power cuts Nigeria’s GDP by about $29 billion yearly, roughly 10%. A brief peak of 6,003MW in March 2025 collapsed soon after due to vandalism and gas supply problems.
Dangote’s track record with large projects gives weight to the plan, but major obstacles remain. Nigeria’s transmission network cannot handle more than 8,000MW without risking collapse. Distribution companies also struggle with revenue collection, leaving gas suppliers and power plants unpaid. About 70% of thermal plants currently run below capacity because of gas shortages.
To bypass these issues, Dangote plans to use his own gas assets and LNG operations. His strategy leans on vertical integration: mining potash and phosphate in Congo and Brazil, building a deep-sea port, and expanding into urea production to make the group its own biggest customer.
“The needs of Africa are petroleum products and fertilisers,” Dangote said. “In about two and a half years, we will be the largest fertiliser company in the world. We are putting up 12 million tons of urea. We are opening up mines of potash and phosphate in Congo and Brazil. We are building the biggest deep-sea port with an 18-meter draft. We are doing LNG.”
For the 20,000MW project to work, Nigeria would need a complete overhaul of its power policy and stronger coordination between public and private players — something that has eluded the sector since privatisation in 2013.
For now, analysts remain cautious about timelines given the state of the national grid.
(With materials from Businessday NG)