Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has predicted that former vice president Atiku Abubakar would emerge victorious in the presidential primary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) if he decides to contest.
Ardo made the assertion on Friday during a programme, Focus Nigeria, aired on the African Independent Television (AIT), where he analysed possible scenarios ahead of the party’s primary election.
According to him, while discussions around a consensus candidate may arise within the party, such an arrangement would require key contenders, including Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, to step down, a situation he described as unlikely.
He explained that consensus would only be feasible if major aspirants willingly relinquish their ambitions in favour of a single candidate, noting that this could prove difficult given the political realities and the strong support bases of those involved.
“If there is going to be consensus, it means that the contenders will have to step down. It would mean that Atiku, Peter Obi, Amaechi, and others would have to step down for somebody,” Ardo said.
He further said while Obi might personally be inclined to step down under certain circumstances, his loyal supporters, popularly known as the Obedient Movement, would strongly resist such a move.
Ardo also expressed the view that although Atiku’s supporters might accept a consensus arrangement, the former vice president himself is unlikely to withdraw from the race.
“Peter Obi has the disposition to step down, but his support base would oppose that. Without the Obidients, Obi is nothing. Atiku’s support base may allow him to step down, but he himself is not likely to do so,” he stated.
The northern political figure maintained that if all aspirants proceed to contest the primary election, Atiku stands a clear chance of clinching the party’s ticket, regardless of whether the process is conducted through direct primaries or by delegates.
“If all of them go into the primaries, then Atiku will win, be it by delegates or direct primaries. Atiku will 100 percent win the primaries, even if they are conducted multiple times,” Ardo added.
His remarks came amid ongoing political realignments and speculations over potential alliances and candidacies ahead of future elections, with key political actors weighing their options within and across party lines.
The ADC has yet to officially outline its timetable for the primary election, as consultations among stakeholders continue.