The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast, projecting a 3.9% expansion in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
The revised figures, announced during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 on Tuesday at the ongoing World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C., reflect Nigeria’s economic recovery, driven by ongoing reforms.
The upgrade places Nigeria ahead of South Africa in terms of growth forecast, with the later expected to grow at 1.1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
In its July 2025 update, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s growth at 3.4 percent, but the latest report reflects a 0.5 percentage point increase, signaling renewed confidence in the country’s reform-driven economic recovery.
Also, the Fund projected that the Nigerian economy would grow by 4.2% in 2026, an improvement from 3.2% it predicted in July.
The Fund’s updated projection places Nigeria ahead of South Africa but slightly below the broader Sub-Saharan African regional average.
According to the report, South Africa’s growth forecast was raised marginally from 1.0 to 1.1 percent for 2025 but revised downward from 1.3 to 1.2 percent for 2026. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook improved from 4.0 to 4.1 percent for 2025 and from 4.3 to 4.4 percent for 2026.
In the report, IMF attributed Nigeria’s upgraded growth forecast to a combination of supportive domestic factors, including increased oil production, rising investor confidence, and a more favorable fiscal stance projected for 2026.
The Fund noted, “Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” IMF stated.