Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in five battleground states, according to a new survey.
According to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey, released on August 14, when third party candidates are included, Harris is leading Trump in five of the seven battleground states. In May 2024, Trump was leading Biden in six of the states, while he and Biden were tied in one.
The report shows that Harris is two points ahead of Trump overall across the seven states, on 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, while she is two points ahead in North Carolina and Michigan, four points ahead in Arizona, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Nevada, Trump is five points ahead, while they are tied in Georgia.
Across all seven states, Harris has reduced Trump’s margins from May 2024. The biggest swing is in North Carolina, where Harris has wiped out Trump’s 8 point lead and is now 2 points ahead, on 46 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. Harris has also reduced Trump’s lead in Nevada by 3 points.
Meanwhile, in a head-to-head line up, Harris is one point in the lead overall, while she is between one and three points ahead in each state other than Nevada, where Trump is three points ahead, though Harris has narrowed his margin by 6 points since May.
In Georgia, Harris and Trump are tied on 48 percent each. In May, Trump was leading by between by between 1 and 9 points in every battleground state in a head to head lineup, other than Wisconsin where they were tied.
“In many ways, Harris is unburdened by what has been,” report author Amy Walter wrote on the Cook Political Report website.
According to the report, 56 percent of battleground state voters say Harris represents a chance to “turn the page of the Trump/Biden era” and 59 percent see her as representing a “new generation of leadership,” despite being the incumbent vice president.
“Harris’ success in closing the gap is driven by her consolidation of the Democratic base, and increased support among independent voters,” Walter added. Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 48 percent to 40 percent in the 2-way head-to-head. In May, Trump led Biden among independent voters by three points (41 percent to 38 percent).
Trump, however, continues to hold an advantage over Harris on issues like the border and immigration, which he is 14 points ahead of Harris on, getting inflation and the cost of living under control, which he is 6 points ahead on, and dealing with crime and violence, which he is 4 points ahead on, the survey shows.
But despite his lead on the issues, Harris and Trump are virtually tied when it comes to who voters feel safer under, with 46 percent saying Harris makes them feel safer, and 45 percent choosing Trump.
“To me, the ‘feel safer’ number is the most notable in the poll,” said Patrick Toomey, partner at BSG, which helped conduct the poll.
“In many ways, we saw that concerns about Biden’s age and mental acuity were preventing him from effectively leveraging issues that should work to Democrats’ advantage, like abortion and health care. Now, we’re seeing how concerns about Trump’s erratic temperament and fixation on retribution are preventing him from converting relative strength on immigration, crime, the economy and foreign policy into making people feel safer with him in charge.”
The report surveyed 2,867 likely voters across the 7 states and has a margin of error of +/- 1.83 percent.
On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls, with the FiveThirtyEight aggregator showing she now has a 2.4-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls.
In seven battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the polls are more volatile, with Harris leading in some and Trump leading in others.
In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted from August 5 to August 9, Harris held a four-point lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, marking a significant shift from Biden’s previous performance in these swing states. All three states flipped to the Democrats in 2020 after supporting Trump in 2016.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregator shows Trump leading in North Carolina in all but one poll, where he and Harris are tied at 46 percent. In Georgia, they are virtually tied, each with 45.7 percent. Biden narrowly won Georgia in 2020, while Trump secured victories in North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020.
A YouGov/CBS poll from August 2 also showed neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with the two candidates in an overall deadlock.